1.7 Million Reasons Why Florida Counts

Both before and in the wake of the Florida primary pundits and politicos stated that the Florida primary did not matter. John Kerry, who notably lost Florida in 2004, referred to the election process as illegitimate. In fact, his exact words were "It is not a legitimate race..."
Thank you Senator Kerry for providing the talking point for Camp Obama, but here is the reality: 1.7 million Democrats cast their votes in Florida Tuesday night--more than all of the previous states combined. In absolute and proportional terms, this was a legitimate race. Consider:

• No candidate openly ran in Florida. There was activity from both Camp Obama and Camp Clinton. Fundraising was always permitted and who gives money blindly?
• 1.7 million votes were cast--more than any Democratic primary in Florida's history--just like in the previous states
• Hillary won big among women (54% to 31%), just like in earlier states
• Obama won big among Blacks (79-72-73% depending on age bracket), just like in earlier states
• Hillary fared poorly among Blacks (17-26-25%, just like in earlier states
• Obama fared poorly among non-Blacks (average in the 24% range), just like in earlier states
• Obama won the college towns of Gainesville (University of Florida) and Tallahassee (Florida State University), just like in earlier states
• Obama won the young person's vote (49% to 39% among 18-24 yr olds), just like in earlier states
• Hillary won the older voter's bloc (44% to 35% among 45-59 and 58% to 26% for those 60 and over), just like in earlier states
• Hillary won the Latino vote, just like in earlier states
  
• The final results had Hillary and Obama competing for the silver and gold, with Edwards finishing with the bronze, just like in earlier states (except Iowa where Edwards won the silver).

How then does this vote not count? How is this "illegitimate" Senator Kerry?

By the way, among voters who decided for whom they were going to vote within the last 3 days, Obama won.....36-35%. So no, no last minute bump or rush to the polls that influenced the outcome of the race.

More importantly, how is this vote not reflective and predictive of the primary season?

Recommended Reads:
Florida Exit Poll Data
Publish Post

Latino vs African American: A Tipping Point in American Politics?

This is a post that will be revisited several times, but it just occurred to me that we are at a cross roads in American politics. According to author Malcolm Gladwell, who mainstreamed the term, the tipping point is "the level(s) at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable." In lay terms, it is the point of no return. Next Tuesday potentially represents a tipping point in the national minority political system.

African Americans have overwhelmingly supported Barack Obama through the early stages. All indications are that the support will continue at similar levels through Super Tuesday. All indications at this point are that Latinos and Hispanics will overwhelmingly support Hillary Clinton.

We have now passed the stage in the primary process where the Black vote significantly determines the outcome of elections. Georgia is one of the only remaining state where Blacks make up a significant portion of Democratic voters. Having cornered the Black vote, Barack Obama stands toe to toe in gold medals with Hillary Clinton and ahead in the delegate count. So what now?

The election turns to California, the Southwest, Ny, and NJ where the Latino vote is the swing vote. If the trends hold up, Hillary will have a significant gain in state victories and should move ahead in the delegate count.

If Senator Clinton overwhelmingly wins these votes (she has support of 59% of support from Latinos in California) and receives a high number of delegates, then we will have reached the tipping point in the primary season--and it will be Latinos, not African Americans who moved us to that point.

Implications
If this speculation turns to actualization and Senator Clinton wins the nomination and general election, Latinos will be in prime position to claim the prize of prime minority group. This has ramifications in cabinet positions, government contracts, appointments, and overall influence.

Shawn Bagley, head of the Clinton campaign in Monterey County and regional director for the California Democratic Party: "It's critical (Latino voters) turn out to vote, and turn out to vote for Hillary, who will address all their needs."

Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials: Supports and is campaigning for Senator Clinton


Keep an eye on next Tuesday. We may all witness history, but not the one we think.

Recommended
The Tipping Point (google ebook)
Latino Vote Gains Clout

John Edwards: The Power Broker

I've spent a disproportionate amount of time writing about the Democrats. By most accounts, the Democratic side of the nomination process is more entertaining, but remember that there will be two candidates after all of this. That being said, this will be my last post on the Democrats for a few days. Given the emergent theme of race over the last week, I find it very interesting that the White man who is being openly ignored by most may be the most powerful individual in this process. Why and how?

Why?
In many of the Democratic primaries, delegates are awarded based on representation (votes) in congressional districts. This means that the winner of a state rarely receives all of the delegates a state has to offer. This is why Senator Obama received one more delegate than Senator Clinton in Nevada eventhough he did not win the popular vote (maybe he is Bill Clinton '92 redux.) Many, if not every Democratic national office holder (and governor) is a super delegate and they can vote whatever way they'd like.

The magic number is 50% plus one. For Democrats, that equals 2025 delegates needed to win the nomination.

How?

John Edwards will have the right to "throw" his delegates If neither Obama or Clinton hit that number and Edwards has enough delegates, then his delegation can crown the nominee. Isn't that interesting?

Is it possible? At this rate, it certainly is.

Questions:
What are your thoughts on the delegate awarding process?
What are your thoughts on Edwards being the power broker?


Recommended Reads:
Edwards the Power Broker
What are Delegates?
How are Delegates Awarded?
Hard Choices

They Are Who We Thought They Were: The South Carolina Democratic Primary

The results of Saturday's Democratic primary in South Carolina are shocking only to the mainstream news media. Obama won and won big, but where and how? A quick recap show that the Black candidate won approximately 80% of the Black vote and the White candidates won approximately 75% of the White vote. That, my friends is a break along racial fault lines. That is not cross over appeal, that is not transcendent, that is not race neutral. Such strong numbers indicate that, at least in South Carolina, race mattered in the race. In short, "they are who we thought they were." (see clip below.)

Why is this important? If Senator Obama is to win the nomination, he will have to do better. As I noted in my earlier post on The Central Question, Mr. Obama cannot do better without delineating a cogent and strong policy based agenda and deploying it to traditional Democratic voters, he will suffer. Here are some numbers for your consideration:

• African Americans will comprise only 15% of the registered voters on Super Duper Tuesday
• Mr. Edwards only pulled 4% of the vote in the Nevada primary. If that holds, he will be a non factor in many of the contests
• Senator Obama only received support from 22% of the white women vote in South Carolina
• Senator Obama polled his lowest thus far among Whites in South Carolina
  

Welcome to the South Senator.

What does an Endorsement Say about the Endorsed?

John Kerry, you want the stage, you got it. Black supporters of Barack Obama, pay attention. Camp Obama touted Kerry's January 10th endorsement of Barack Obama. If you ascribe to the school of thought that accepted and announced (notice the qualifiers) endorsements tell you about the values of the candidate, then pay attention.

In his 2004 acceptance speech, Senator Kerry did not mention blacks, African Americans, or even Martin Luther King. NOT ONCE. Check the transcript. Now Captain (although his title was Lieutenant) Kerry is coming to Obama's rescue? Perhaps Camp Obama should have thought twice about a man who left Obama's people out of his vision for America.

Senator Obama: You cannot have it both ways, either reject the Rejector and embrace your people, or give back our support.

Then again, it seems fitting that Obama would embrace the Kerry endorsement. Camp Obama says that they don't want this to be about race, that they "transcend" race, and that this campaign is about change. What change are you arguing for Senator Obama? Are you, along with your colleague Senator Kerry, advocating the removal of set asides and qualifiers based on race? Are you in support of No Child Left Behind? What, Senator Obama, will your presidency mean? If John Kerry type philosophy is what we have to look forward too, then NO THANK YOU.

In the words of School Daze, Black Voters in South Carolina "WAAAAAAKKKKKEEEE UUUUPPP"



Recommended Reading:
John Kerry Acceptance Speech

Playing Dirty?

For Democrats this week started with a bang and promises to end with an equally loud boom tomorrow as South Carolinians go to the voting booth. The week started with the sound of a boom mic in the face of each major candidate and will conclude with the quite punching of keys on a computer screen or a pen selecting a name. Either way, the one word everyone following Democratic politics learned (or re-learned) this week is dirty.

The claim of throwin and doin dirt started on Sunday when Senator Obama whined about campaigning against Senator Clinton AND her spouse. I use the word 'whine' with full intent and knowledge, but also because of it is appropriate. Camp Obama claimed that Camp Clinton was playing dirty by using the candidate's spouse on the campaign trail. Camp Obama said the Hillary's husband was too vocal, too one the scene, and made distortions. I guess someone forgot to tell the Senator from Illinois that is par for the course to have an opponent's spouse campaigning on their behalf. Dick Polman discussed the implications of Obama's whining in a post on his blog called "The alumnus as alpha dog" Stop whining and deal. This isn't your kindergarten teacher you're talking to here.

On Monday Camp Clinton decided that they too could and should whine. The afternoon found Senator Clinton's husband restating claims that the vote in Nevada was suppressed. The Senator's spouse said that he just could not by and watch his wife be attacked.

Monday night the playing dirty continued. Senator Obama called Senator Clinton a corporate attorney for Wal-Mart (a favorite shopping location for South Carolinian blacks and most people, so not quite sure of the slander) and she replied that he represented slum lords in the inner city of Chicago thereby implying that he hurts his own people.

By all accounts, she went too far when she said he doesn't take responsibility (even I recoiled at this one.) After a week of accurate but poorly timed less than racially sensitive remarks, Camp Clinton capped them all by saying that a Black man (who happens to be half white, but that is me not her) won't take responsibility. Ooohhh....can we hear 'dead beat dads' and 'can't keep a job' or how about 'probably will be in jail one day' in those words? Although that was probably not the intent, that's what many heard behind those words.

Let's not forget Senator Clinton's spouse saying that he felt like Obama put a hit out on him. Damn those pesky spouses. Come on Mr. Clinton, we all thought your wife was going to execute a hit herself 10 years ago, so shouldn't Mr. B. Hussein Obama be able to do the same?

And so on and so on....

My question is, when is politics clean? Democrats, ask Carter, Dukakis, Kerry and definitely Al Gore about whether or not presidential politics is a clean business. They all will tell you no! A decorated Vietnam Vet being 'swift boated' by a draft dodger who happened to have pulled off the greatest heist in American history with the 2000 election? Not nice.

My advice: Grow up, stop complaining and move forward. Senator Obama, you may be able to replicate the feeling and impact of sympathy from black voters in South Carolina that Senator Clinton received from women in New Hampshire, but it will not sustain you. Senator Clinton: using your spouse is fine, but PLEASE take some cultural sensitivity lessons.


Update @ 11:52am- Apparently Mrs. Obama has decided to join the fracas and become more vocal. Looks to me like Camp Obama is seeking to turn this into a dual duel, on one level having the white couple take on the black couple and on a second (and more clever level), forcing a man to take on a woman.

Why do this? To secure the black vote beyond South Carolina and to split the woman vote. Watch for Mrs. Obama to speak not only about her husband, but about traditional women's issues. Also look for her to reprise Senator Clinton's role as defender of the mate that she perfected in the 90s. Interesting development. 11:54am.

Update @ 1:37pm
Senator Kerry, STFU. Ok, once you lose, your voice really goes silent. I am really surprised that he was able to take a break from wind-surfing. You did not mention African Americans in your convention speech and COMPLETELY neglected African American issues in that same speech. I am not altogether certain why Camp Obama would embrace the endorsement of someone who neglected Black issues.
1:40pm

Update @ 9:59pm
Let me add former Clinton staffer and number 1 Clinton hater Dick Morris to the crew that needs to stop whining. He has taken his hatred of the Senator and her husband to a new level with his daily blogs. Time to close the books Dick and stop implying dirty play.
Recommended Reads:
Clinton, Obama Back Off Attacks
Black America Feels the Sting
Kerry Whines about Obama being Swiftboated

Romney's Resurgence

Yesterday I posted about the self imposed issues the Obama campaign is suffering. I will revisit this shortly today. The morning has the feel of an approaching hurricane--you know the storm is moving your direction and things will surely move because of it, but you don't know exactly how. In this case, it is the candidacy of Mitt Romney.

Like Senator Clinton, Governor Romney was left for dead after Iowa. After sinking millions into the state, he finished behind the trailer park raised, squirrel eating, lower class bred man from a little town called Hope in Arkansas--no, not President Clinton--Governor Huckabee. Senator Clinton finished third to national neophyte who speaks in grandiose terms and switches between bombastic tones and dove language to titillate his audience and a one term guy who couldn't hack it in the Senate or as a Vice Presidential candidate. Romney won the silver, Clinton the Bronze. New Hampshire was more of the same for Governor Romney, although Senator Clinton brought home the gold. Romney went west like the young men of old to score gold in Wyoming and then in Michigan and Nevada. Three weeks ago, Clinton and Romney were left for political dead--two weeks ago, the Romney campaign was alone in the heap on the side of the primary road.

A funny thing happened on the way to tonight's debate--Romney found his own voice. That voice was distant after the early states, but has overtaken the shrill of the dying Guiliani campaign and can be heard like approaching footsteps to the McCain camp. In mid December, Romney trailed the leader (Guiliani in this case) by 9pts. Immediately after Iowa, he trailed by 11; last week it was a 1 pt deficit, and now he has overtaken Mayor Guiliani by 5 and Senator McCain by 4 points.

What's behind the resurgence? First, experience. Campaigning in Michigan, Wyoming, and Nevada provided the Romney camp friendly and safe experience. With the victories came confidence and a know how to communicate. They learned what messages worked for their candidate (the most difficult task for a political consultant) and their audience. It is on full display here in the delegate rich Florida--where it isn't about religion, it is about protection and protecting the Republican tradition. Second, the team. Romney assembled the most impressive staff of Floridians from the last 14 years. He has Governor Jeb Bush's chief advisers, current Governor Charlie Crist's inner circle, and strategists (read: lobbyists) with connections all over the state at his disposal. Unlike traditional Democrats who use political endorses to convince voters, Romney picked up the Florida Sledgehammer of political staffers and is using it liberally across the state. Congratulations Governor Romney, you may finally have the gold in a televised event.

Current Medal Count

Recommendation to Camp Romney: Refine your message and use key concepts that will play well on February 5. Find the common ground between Florida and the 22 states and use the debate tonight to both secure the state and launch yourself ahead in the upcoming states.

Recommended Reads:
Rudy's Big Gamble
Florida Republican Debate

The Central Question in the Democratic Debate

It is a gross understatement to say that I am not the first to discuss the merits of Hillary Clinton versus Barack Obama as nominees for the Democratic Presidential nomination within the last minute. I do notice, however, that there is an area that the candidates are starting to approach in the debates but that has not yet caught hold in the mainstream media. The euphoria surrounding Senator Obama is undeniable. The almost cerebral approach employed by supporters of Senator Clinton is equally well documented, but the underlying assumptions are not addressed--what is the basis for supporting either candidate.

Take a few moments and visit the NY Times, Washington Post, CNN.com, and your local or regional coverage. Read how they describe each candidacy. You will quickly notice that the adjectives used to describe the Obama events center on the music, the size of the crowds, and the emotional response when people hear him speak in person. When you read the adjectives used to describe the Clinton events, you will see that the size of the crowd is mentioned in relative terms to that of Obama. The attendees are described not for their emotional reaction, but of their cerebral and practical response to her words. One can make assumptions about why this is, but to me it raises what I believe is the central question in this debate and, more importantly, in the race for the nomination. To Obama supporters I ask:

Which of Senator Obama's policy positions garnered your support?


This question is absolutely critical for three reasons:
1) Senator Obama is losing on the experience card. His opponents trumpet their experience, whether it is 35 years of working towards change (Clinton) or not being afraid to show up for tough votes (Edwards), or serving as Governor/Congressman/Secretary of Energy (Richardson), Chair of Foreign Relations (Biden) or, on the Republican side, Mayor during a national crisis (Guiliani), Governor and CEO (Romney), or maverick politician (McCain).

Each of these candidates, save Obama, can cite various policy positions on the pressing issues of today: the economy, the war on terror, health care.
Reader: Describe for me Obama's position on any of these issues without googling them. Can you do it? Can the supporters do it?

2) Demographic Disadvantage. The demographic categories that Senator Obama is losing: women, those under 50k annual income, older whites, and the moderately educated all vote regularly. The demographic categories that Senator Obama is winning, African Americans, affluent, and the young do not regularly vote.

As a political consultant and former campaign volunteer, it is always my job to determine who is likely to vote and work from there. Surely all of Senator Obama's staff is doing the same. If we lookat those who are likely to vote in the upcoming primaries, it becomes clear that policies (read: how you will fix the problems that plague me) will carry the day. This may not be the case in every election, but in the wake of the last 7 years, people are intensely concerned about policy.

3) Walking the Talk. If Mr. Obama is elected, it will be his policies that determine the extent to which he is able to fulfill the vision of campaign to end partisanship in Washington. Republicans will rarely if ever support any bill that extends abortion rights. Democrats will rarely if ever support a bill that places more money in the War to the neglect of domestic matters. The Religious Right, that influences so much of the Republican political agenda, will actively resist Gay Marriage and politicians from both parties will potentially fight against amnesty for illegal immigrants. If any of these are central to Mr. Obama's political agenda, he will not be able to walk the talk.

My advice to the Obama campaign: Develop, distribute, and discuss your policy positions. Do it now or suffer later.

Recommended Reads:
Debate Obama vs Big Speech Obama
Now or Never for Obama