Monday, January 28, 2008

They Are Who We Thought They Were: The South Carolina Democratic Primary

The results of Saturday's Democratic primary in South Carolina are shocking only to the mainstream news media. Obama won and won big, but where and how? A quick recap show that the Black candidate won approximately 80% of the Black vote and the White candidates won approximately 75% of the White vote. That, my friends is a break along racial fault lines. That is not cross over appeal, that is not transcendent, that is not race neutral. Such strong numbers indicate that, at least in South Carolina, race mattered in the race. In short, "they are who we thought they were." (see clip below.)

Why is this important? If Senator Obama is to win the nomination, he will have to do better. As I noted in my earlier post on The Central Question, Mr. Obama cannot do better without delineating a cogent and strong policy based agenda and deploying it to traditional Democratic voters, he will suffer. Here are some numbers for your consideration:

  • African Americans will comprise only 15% of the registered voters on Super Duper Tuesday
  • Mr. Edwards only pulled 4% of the vote in the Nevada primary. If that holds, he will be a non factor in many of the contests
  • Senator Obama only received support from 22% of the white women vote in South Carolina
  • Senator Obama polled his lowest thus far among Whites in South Carolina
Welcome to the South Senator.

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