Wednesday, January 30, 2008

1.7 Million Reasons Why Florida Counts

Both before and in the wake of the Florida primary pundits and politicos stated that the Florida primary did not matter. John Kerry, who notably lost Florida in 2004, referred to the election process as illegitimate. In fact, his exact words were "It is not a legitimate race..."
Thank you Senator Kerry for providing the talking point for Camp Obama, but here is the reality: 1.7 million Democrats cast their votes in Florida Tuesday night--more than all of the previous states combined. In absolute and proportional terms, this was a legitimate race. Consider:

  • No candidate openly ran in Florida. There was activity from both Camp Obama and Camp Clinton. Fundraising was always permitted and who gives money blindly?
  • 1.7 million votes were cast--more than any Democratic primary in Florida's history--just like in the previous states
  • Hillary won big among women (54% to 31%), just like in earlier states
  • Obama won big among Blacks (79-72-73% depending on age bracket), just like in earlier states
  • Hillary fared poorly among Blacks (17-26-25%, just like in earlier states
  • Obama fared poorly among non-Blacks (average in the 24% range), just like in earlier states
  • Obama won the college towns of Gainesville (University of Florida) and Tallahassee (Florida State University), just like in earlier states
  • Obama won the young person's vote (49% to 39% among 18-24 yr olds), just like in earlier states
  • Hillary won the older voter's bloc (44% to 35% among 45-59 and 58% to 26% for those 60 and over), just like in earlier states
  • Hillary won the Latino vote, just like in earlier states
  • The final results had Hillary and Obama competing for the silver and gold, with Edwards finishing with the bronze, just like in earlier states (except Iowa where Edwards won the silver).
How then does this vote not count? How is this "illegitimate" Senator Kerry?

By the way, among voters who decided for whom they were going to vote within the last 3 days, Obama won.....36-35%. So no, no last minute bump or rush to the polls that influenced the outcome of the race.

More importantly, how is this vote not reflective and predictive of the primary season?

Recommended Reads:
Florida Exit Poll Data
Publish Post

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