The Central Question in the Democratic Debate

It is a gross understatement to say that I am not the first to discuss the merits of Hillary Clinton versus Barack Obama as nominees for the Democratic Presidential nomination within the last minute. I do notice, however, that there is an area that the candidates are starting to approach in the debates but that has not yet caught hold in the mainstream media. The euphoria surrounding Senator Obama is undeniable. The almost cerebral approach employed by supporters of Senator Clinton is equally well documented, but the underlying assumptions are not addressed--what is the basis for supporting either candidate.

Take a few moments and visit the NY Times, Washington Post, CNN.com, and your local or regional coverage. Read how they describe each candidacy. You will quickly notice that the adjectives used to describe the Obama events center on the music, the size of the crowds, and the emotional response when people hear him speak in person. When you read the adjectives used to describe the Clinton events, you will see that the size of the crowd is mentioned in relative terms to that of Obama. The attendees are described not for their emotional reaction, but of their cerebral and practical response to her words. One can make assumptions about why this is, but to me it raises what I believe is the central question in this debate and, more importantly, in the race for the nomination. To Obama supporters I ask:

Which of Senator Obama's policy positions garnered your support?


This question is absolutely critical for three reasons:
1) Senator Obama is losing on the experience card. His opponents trumpet their experience, whether it is 35 years of working towards change (Clinton) or not being afraid to show up for tough votes (Edwards), or serving as Governor/Congressman/Secretary of Energy (Richardson), Chair of Foreign Relations (Biden) or, on the Republican side, Mayor during a national crisis (Guiliani), Governor and CEO (Romney), or maverick politician (McCain).

Each of these candidates, save Obama, can cite various policy positions on the pressing issues of today: the economy, the war on terror, health care.
Reader: Describe for me Obama's position on any of these issues without googling them. Can you do it? Can the supporters do it?

2) Demographic Disadvantage. The demographic categories that Senator Obama is losing: women, those under 50k annual income, older whites, and the moderately educated all vote regularly. The demographic categories that Senator Obama is winning, African Americans, affluent, and the young do not regularly vote.

As a political consultant and former campaign volunteer, it is always my job to determine who is likely to vote and work from there. Surely all of Senator Obama's staff is doing the same. If we lookat those who are likely to vote in the upcoming primaries, it becomes clear that policies (read: how you will fix the problems that plague me) will carry the day. This may not be the case in every election, but in the wake of the last 7 years, people are intensely concerned about policy.

3) Walking the Talk. If Mr. Obama is elected, it will be his policies that determine the extent to which he is able to fulfill the vision of campaign to end partisanship in Washington. Republicans will rarely if ever support any bill that extends abortion rights. Democrats will rarely if ever support a bill that places more money in the War to the neglect of domestic matters. The Religious Right, that influences so much of the Republican political agenda, will actively resist Gay Marriage and politicians from both parties will potentially fight against amnesty for illegal immigrants. If any of these are central to Mr. Obama's political agenda, he will not be able to walk the talk.

My advice to the Obama campaign: Develop, distribute, and discuss your policy positions. Do it now or suffer later.

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Debate Obama vs Big Speech Obama
Now or Never for Obama