1.7 Million Reasons Why Florida Counts

Both before and in the wake of the Florida primary pundits and politicos stated that the Florida primary did not matter. John Kerry, who notably lost Florida in 2004, referred to the election process as illegitimate. In fact, his exact words were "It is not a legitimate race..."
Thank you Senator Kerry for providing the talking point for Camp Obama, but here is the reality: 1.7 million Democrats cast their votes in Florida Tuesday night--more than all of the previous states combined. In absolute and proportional terms, this was a legitimate race. Consider:

• No candidate openly ran in Florida. There was activity from both Camp Obama and Camp Clinton. Fundraising was always permitted and who gives money blindly?
• 1.7 million votes were cast--more than any Democratic primary in Florida's history--just like in the previous states
• Hillary won big among women (54% to 31%), just like in earlier states
• Obama won big among Blacks (79-72-73% depending on age bracket), just like in earlier states
• Hillary fared poorly among Blacks (17-26-25%, just like in earlier states
• Obama fared poorly among non-Blacks (average in the 24% range), just like in earlier states
• Obama won the college towns of Gainesville (University of Florida) and Tallahassee (Florida State University), just like in earlier states
• Obama won the young person's vote (49% to 39% among 18-24 yr olds), just like in earlier states
• Hillary won the older voter's bloc (44% to 35% among 45-59 and 58% to 26% for those 60 and over), just like in earlier states
• Hillary won the Latino vote, just like in earlier states
  
• The final results had Hillary and Obama competing for the silver and gold, with Edwards finishing with the bronze, just like in earlier states (except Iowa where Edwards won the silver).

How then does this vote not count? How is this "illegitimate" Senator Kerry?

By the way, among voters who decided for whom they were going to vote within the last 3 days, Obama won.....36-35%. So no, no last minute bump or rush to the polls that influenced the outcome of the race.

More importantly, how is this vote not reflective and predictive of the primary season?

Recommended Reads:
Florida Exit Poll Data
Publish Post

John Edwards: The Power Broker

I've spent a disproportionate amount of time writing about the Democrats. By most accounts, the Democratic side of the nomination process is more entertaining, but remember that there will be two candidates after all of this. That being said, this will be my last post on the Democrats for a few days. Given the emergent theme of race over the last week, I find it very interesting that the White man who is being openly ignored by most may be the most powerful individual in this process. Why and how?

Why?
In many of the Democratic primaries, delegates are awarded based on representation (votes) in congressional districts. This means that the winner of a state rarely receives all of the delegates a state has to offer. This is why Senator Obama received one more delegate than Senator Clinton in Nevada eventhough he did not win the popular vote (maybe he is Bill Clinton '92 redux.) Many, if not every Democratic national office holder (and governor) is a super delegate and they can vote whatever way they'd like.

The magic number is 50% plus one. For Democrats, that equals 2025 delegates needed to win the nomination.

How?

John Edwards will have the right to "throw" his delegates If neither Obama or Clinton hit that number and Edwards has enough delegates, then his delegation can crown the nominee. Isn't that interesting?

Is it possible? At this rate, it certainly is.

Questions:
What are your thoughts on the delegate awarding process?
What are your thoughts on Edwards being the power broker?


Recommended Reads:
Edwards the Power Broker
What are Delegates?
How are Delegates Awarded?
Hard Choices