A Rejection of Northeastern Liberals

Camp Clinton appeared to suffer blow after blow in the wake of South Carolina. Massachusetts liberal after Massachusetts liberal joined forces, united by White guilt, and attacked Camp Clinton. The forces of old school liberalism united and lay siege to Camp Clinton, waiving the banner of Color Blind and Progressivenes on their Black horses. The goal: defeat the evil racist Clintons.

Something strange happened along the way. The perpetual losers known as the Kennedy Clan fell flat. The tables were turned. They were pushed back in California, Arizona, almost everywhere they campaigned on behalf of Senator Obama. The liberals were forced to retreat to their home base in Boston where Camp Clinton pressed hard and sent Ted, Caroline, et. al running into the harbour (not to mention clan mate Maria Shriver cast off into the Pacific.)

Let''s not underestimate or understate the significance of what happened Tuesday. Yes the delegate count and the popular vote overall were near even. More important or equally important is where the victories came. More on this later, but Camp Clinton scored serious and significant victories.

Kerry is and will be a loser. Ted, there's a reason you've never been the nominee and never will be.

Recommended Reads:
A Loss for Kennedy

Latino vs African American: A Tipping Point in American Politics?

This is a post that will be revisited several times, but it just occurred to me that we are at a cross roads in American politics. According to author Malcolm Gladwell, who mainstreamed the term, the tipping point is "the level(s) at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable." In lay terms, it is the point of no return. Next Tuesday potentially represents a tipping point in the national minority political system.

African Americans have overwhelmingly supported Barack Obama through the early stages. All indications are that the support will continue at similar levels through Super Tuesday. All indications at this point are that Latinos and Hispanics will overwhelmingly support Hillary Clinton.

We have now passed the stage in the primary process where the Black vote significantly determines the outcome of elections. Georgia is one of the only remaining state where Blacks make up a significant portion of Democratic voters. Having cornered the Black vote, Barack Obama stands toe to toe in gold medals with Hillary Clinton and ahead in the delegate count. So what now?

The election turns to California, the Southwest, Ny, and NJ where the Latino vote is the swing vote. If the trends hold up, Hillary will have a significant gain in state victories and should move ahead in the delegate count.

If Senator Clinton overwhelmingly wins these votes (she has support of 59% of support from Latinos in California) and receives a high number of delegates, then we will have reached the tipping point in the primary season--and it will be Latinos, not African Americans who moved us to that point.

Implications
If this speculation turns to actualization and Senator Clinton wins the nomination and general election, Latinos will be in prime position to claim the prize of prime minority group. This has ramifications in cabinet positions, government contracts, appointments, and overall influence.

Shawn Bagley, head of the Clinton campaign in Monterey County and regional director for the California Democratic Party: "It's critical (Latino voters) turn out to vote, and turn out to vote for Hillary, who will address all their needs."

Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials: Supports and is campaigning for Senator Clinton


Keep an eye on next Tuesday. We may all witness history, but not the one we think.

Recommended
The Tipping Point (google ebook)
Latino Vote Gains Clout

John Edwards: The Power Broker

I've spent a disproportionate amount of time writing about the Democrats. By most accounts, the Democratic side of the nomination process is more entertaining, but remember that there will be two candidates after all of this. That being said, this will be my last post on the Democrats for a few days. Given the emergent theme of race over the last week, I find it very interesting that the White man who is being openly ignored by most may be the most powerful individual in this process. Why and how?

Why?
In many of the Democratic primaries, delegates are awarded based on representation (votes) in congressional districts. This means that the winner of a state rarely receives all of the delegates a state has to offer. This is why Senator Obama received one more delegate than Senator Clinton in Nevada eventhough he did not win the popular vote (maybe he is Bill Clinton '92 redux.) Many, if not every Democratic national office holder (and governor) is a super delegate and they can vote whatever way they'd like.

The magic number is 50% plus one. For Democrats, that equals 2025 delegates needed to win the nomination.

How?

John Edwards will have the right to "throw" his delegates If neither Obama or Clinton hit that number and Edwards has enough delegates, then his delegation can crown the nominee. Isn't that interesting?

Is it possible? At this rate, it certainly is.

Questions:
What are your thoughts on the delegate awarding process?
What are your thoughts on Edwards being the power broker?


Recommended Reads:
Edwards the Power Broker
What are Delegates?
How are Delegates Awarded?
Hard Choices