1.7 Million Reasons Why Florida Counts

Both before and in the wake of the Florida primary pundits and politicos stated that the Florida primary did not matter. John Kerry, who notably lost Florida in 2004, referred to the election process as illegitimate. In fact, his exact words were "It is not a legitimate race..."
Thank you Senator Kerry for providing the talking point for Camp Obama, but here is the reality: 1.7 million Democrats cast their votes in Florida Tuesday night--more than all of the previous states combined. In absolute and proportional terms, this was a legitimate race. Consider:

• No candidate openly ran in Florida. There was activity from both Camp Obama and Camp Clinton. Fundraising was always permitted and who gives money blindly?
• 1.7 million votes were cast--more than any Democratic primary in Florida's history--just like in the previous states
• Hillary won big among women (54% to 31%), just like in earlier states
• Obama won big among Blacks (79-72-73% depending on age bracket), just like in earlier states
• Hillary fared poorly among Blacks (17-26-25%, just like in earlier states
• Obama fared poorly among non-Blacks (average in the 24% range), just like in earlier states
• Obama won the college towns of Gainesville (University of Florida) and Tallahassee (Florida State University), just like in earlier states
• Obama won the young person's vote (49% to 39% among 18-24 yr olds), just like in earlier states
• Hillary won the older voter's bloc (44% to 35% among 45-59 and 58% to 26% for those 60 and over), just like in earlier states
• Hillary won the Latino vote, just like in earlier states
  
• The final results had Hillary and Obama competing for the silver and gold, with Edwards finishing with the bronze, just like in earlier states (except Iowa where Edwards won the silver).

How then does this vote not count? How is this "illegitimate" Senator Kerry?

By the way, among voters who decided for whom they were going to vote within the last 3 days, Obama won.....36-35%. So no, no last minute bump or rush to the polls that influenced the outcome of the race.

More importantly, how is this vote not reflective and predictive of the primary season?

Recommended Reads:
Florida Exit Poll Data
Publish Post

Latino vs African American: A Tipping Point in American Politics?

This is a post that will be revisited several times, but it just occurred to me that we are at a cross roads in American politics. According to author Malcolm Gladwell, who mainstreamed the term, the tipping point is "the level(s) at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable." In lay terms, it is the point of no return. Next Tuesday potentially represents a tipping point in the national minority political system.

African Americans have overwhelmingly supported Barack Obama through the early stages. All indications are that the support will continue at similar levels through Super Tuesday. All indications at this point are that Latinos and Hispanics will overwhelmingly support Hillary Clinton.

We have now passed the stage in the primary process where the Black vote significantly determines the outcome of elections. Georgia is one of the only remaining state where Blacks make up a significant portion of Democratic voters. Having cornered the Black vote, Barack Obama stands toe to toe in gold medals with Hillary Clinton and ahead in the delegate count. So what now?

The election turns to California, the Southwest, Ny, and NJ where the Latino vote is the swing vote. If the trends hold up, Hillary will have a significant gain in state victories and should move ahead in the delegate count.

If Senator Clinton overwhelmingly wins these votes (she has support of 59% of support from Latinos in California) and receives a high number of delegates, then we will have reached the tipping point in the primary season--and it will be Latinos, not African Americans who moved us to that point.

Implications
If this speculation turns to actualization and Senator Clinton wins the nomination and general election, Latinos will be in prime position to claim the prize of prime minority group. This has ramifications in cabinet positions, government contracts, appointments, and overall influence.

Shawn Bagley, head of the Clinton campaign in Monterey County and regional director for the California Democratic Party: "It's critical (Latino voters) turn out to vote, and turn out to vote for Hillary, who will address all their needs."

Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials: Supports and is campaigning for Senator Clinton


Keep an eye on next Tuesday. We may all witness history, but not the one we think.

Recommended
The Tipping Point (google ebook)
Latino Vote Gains Clout

Romney's Resurgence

Yesterday I posted about the self imposed issues the Obama campaign is suffering. I will revisit this shortly today. The morning has the feel of an approaching hurricane--you know the storm is moving your direction and things will surely move because of it, but you don't know exactly how. In this case, it is the candidacy of Mitt Romney.

Like Senator Clinton, Governor Romney was left for dead after Iowa. After sinking millions into the state, he finished behind the trailer park raised, squirrel eating, lower class bred man from a little town called Hope in Arkansas--no, not President Clinton--Governor Huckabee. Senator Clinton finished third to national neophyte who speaks in grandiose terms and switches between bombastic tones and dove language to titillate his audience and a one term guy who couldn't hack it in the Senate or as a Vice Presidential candidate. Romney won the silver, Clinton the Bronze. New Hampshire was more of the same for Governor Romney, although Senator Clinton brought home the gold. Romney went west like the young men of old to score gold in Wyoming and then in Michigan and Nevada. Three weeks ago, Clinton and Romney were left for political dead--two weeks ago, the Romney campaign was alone in the heap on the side of the primary road.

A funny thing happened on the way to tonight's debate--Romney found his own voice. That voice was distant after the early states, but has overtaken the shrill of the dying Guiliani campaign and can be heard like approaching footsteps to the McCain camp. In mid December, Romney trailed the leader (Guiliani in this case) by 9pts. Immediately after Iowa, he trailed by 11; last week it was a 1 pt deficit, and now he has overtaken Mayor Guiliani by 5 and Senator McCain by 4 points.

What's behind the resurgence? First, experience. Campaigning in Michigan, Wyoming, and Nevada provided the Romney camp friendly and safe experience. With the victories came confidence and a know how to communicate. They learned what messages worked for their candidate (the most difficult task for a political consultant) and their audience. It is on full display here in the delegate rich Florida--where it isn't about religion, it is about protection and protecting the Republican tradition. Second, the team. Romney assembled the most impressive staff of Floridians from the last 14 years. He has Governor Jeb Bush's chief advisers, current Governor Charlie Crist's inner circle, and strategists (read: lobbyists) with connections all over the state at his disposal. Unlike traditional Democrats who use political endorses to convince voters, Romney picked up the Florida Sledgehammer of political staffers and is using it liberally across the state. Congratulations Governor Romney, you may finally have the gold in a televised event.

Current Medal Count

Recommendation to Camp Romney: Refine your message and use key concepts that will play well on February 5. Find the common ground between Florida and the 22 states and use the debate tonight to both secure the state and launch yourself ahead in the upcoming states.

Recommended Reads:
Rudy's Big Gamble
Florida Republican Debate