Latino vs African American: A Tipping Point in American Politics?

This is a post that will be revisited several times, but it just occurred to me that we are at a cross roads in American politics. According to author Malcolm Gladwell, who mainstreamed the term, the tipping point is "the level(s) at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable." In lay terms, it is the point of no return. Next Tuesday potentially represents a tipping point in the national minority political system.

African Americans have overwhelmingly supported Barack Obama through the early stages. All indications are that the support will continue at similar levels through Super Tuesday. All indications at this point are that Latinos and Hispanics will overwhelmingly support Hillary Clinton.

We have now passed the stage in the primary process where the Black vote significantly determines the outcome of elections. Georgia is one of the only remaining state where Blacks make up a significant portion of Democratic voters. Having cornered the Black vote, Barack Obama stands toe to toe in gold medals with Hillary Clinton and ahead in the delegate count. So what now?

The election turns to California, the Southwest, Ny, and NJ where the Latino vote is the swing vote. If the trends hold up, Hillary will have a significant gain in state victories and should move ahead in the delegate count.

If Senator Clinton overwhelmingly wins these votes (she has support of 59% of support from Latinos in California) and receives a high number of delegates, then we will have reached the tipping point in the primary season--and it will be Latinos, not African Americans who moved us to that point.

Implications
If this speculation turns to actualization and Senator Clinton wins the nomination and general election, Latinos will be in prime position to claim the prize of prime minority group. This has ramifications in cabinet positions, government contracts, appointments, and overall influence.

Shawn Bagley, head of the Clinton campaign in Monterey County and regional director for the California Democratic Party: "It's critical (Latino voters) turn out to vote, and turn out to vote for Hillary, who will address all their needs."

Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials: Supports and is campaigning for Senator Clinton


Keep an eye on next Tuesday. We may all witness history, but not the one we think.

Recommended
The Tipping Point (google ebook)
Latino Vote Gains Clout

They Are Who We Thought They Were: The South Carolina Democratic Primary

The results of Saturday's Democratic primary in South Carolina are shocking only to the mainstream news media. Obama won and won big, but where and how? A quick recap show that the Black candidate won approximately 80% of the Black vote and the White candidates won approximately 75% of the White vote. That, my friends is a break along racial fault lines. That is not cross over appeal, that is not transcendent, that is not race neutral. Such strong numbers indicate that, at least in South Carolina, race mattered in the race. In short, "they are who we thought they were." (see clip below.)

Why is this important? If Senator Obama is to win the nomination, he will have to do better. As I noted in my earlier post on The Central Question, Mr. Obama cannot do better without delineating a cogent and strong policy based agenda and deploying it to traditional Democratic voters, he will suffer. Here are some numbers for your consideration:

• African Americans will comprise only 15% of the registered voters on Super Duper Tuesday
• Mr. Edwards only pulled 4% of the vote in the Nevada primary. If that holds, he will be a non factor in many of the contests
• Senator Obama only received support from 22% of the white women vote in South Carolina
• Senator Obama polled his lowest thus far among Whites in South Carolina
  

Welcome to the South Senator.